Nikkei Asia | 23 March 2025
Trump's threat to free trade brings China, Japan, South Korea closer
by YUKIO TAJIMA, RIEKO MIKI and JUNNOSUKE KOBARA
TOKYO/SEOUL -- Geopolitical uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First" protectionist policy has added urgency to economic cooperation promised Saturday by foreign ministers from Japan, China and South Korea.
Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul met in the Japanese capital, the first such meeting since 2023.
China sees an opportunity in the disruption to the international order caused by Trump, seeking to drive a wedge into the three-way alliance among the U.S., Japan and South Korea.
"The global economic structure is facing serious changes," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a high-level economic dialogue between Japan and China also on Saturday. "Unilateralism and protectionism are becoming rampant."
Wang pressed for an early restart of free trade talks between Japan, China and South Korea. He also reiterated China's interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which includes Japan among its 12 members.
As Japan, China and South Korea are tied together through bilateral trade, free trade is an issue they can rally around amid Trump's tariff war.
The Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports on March 12 and plans to announce more tariffs on automobiles and other products as early as April.
Japan has sought an exemption from the tariffs through cabinet-level talks, but the U.S. so far has not agreed to it. Trump has expressed frustration with Tokyo, arguing that Japan is benefitting from security protection offered by the U.S. military.
"They make a fortune with us economically," Trump said of Japan this month.
Trump's rhetoric is also shaking South Korea. "South Korea's average tariff is four times higher" than what the U.S. places on South Korea, Trump said in his State of the Union address. Seoul refuted the assertion, saying under a free trade agreement, the effective tariff rate on U.S. products is 0.79%.
As the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol leaves the country in political turmoil, Seoul has struggled to build a relationship with Trump.
Adding to its diplomatic woes, the U.S. Energy Department has designated South Korea as a "sensitive country" requiring special consideration in areas like security, terrorism and nuclear nonproliferation.
Japan and South Korea both rely on the U.S. military for security. But they now sense uncertainty in these bedrock arrangements as Trump complains about costs.
China welcomes this relations shake-up. China is engaged in a tariff war with the Trump administration while tensions remain elevated in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Beijing seeks to move closer to Japan and South Korea through a three-way framework that excludes the U.S.
The rapprochement between Washington and Moscow over Russia's invasion of Ukraine is also driving China closer to the two neighbors.
China and Russia have been expanding economic and trade cooperation to counter the U.S. since the start of the war in Ukraine. Beijing does not want to see this dynamic upended to become a situation where it is China vs. the U.S. and Russia.
"The world is preoccupied with Ukraine and cannot pay full attention to China," said a senior official at Japan's Foreign Ministry. "It is important for Japan, as a neighbor, to establish strong lines of communication."
Some in Japan are cautious about moving closer to China. There has been no progress on pending issues, such as Chinese vessels' repeated incursions into territorial waters around the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls the Diaoyu, as well as on the prolonged detention of Japanese nationals.
"If there are no results, such as the resumption of imports of Japanese food products, we may end up being used by the Chinese," said a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
China and South Korea are also dealing with friction. China recently installed a steel structure in the waters of the Yellow Sea where the two countries' exclusive economic zones overlap.
China, Japan and South Korea are planning to hold a summit in Japan within the year, but the date has not been set. Japan and South Korea are experiencing political turmoil at home.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing criticism for giving out 100,000 yen ($670) gift certificates to LDP lawmakers. Some of his party members are contemplating ousting Ishiba from office ahead of the upper house election in the summer to ensure their own political careers.
The trouble at home could prevent Ishiba from focusing on diplomacy.
In South Korea, the Constitutional Court's impeachment trial is underway, and it remains unclear whether Yoon Suk Yeol will be removed from office or return to power.
"China is not being put in a tough spot by the U.S. Beijing may think it can gain an advantage as Japan and South Korea deal with domestic politics," said Ryo Sahashi, professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo.
