Kenyan Foreign Policy, 6 March 2026
By Mwangi Maina
Kenya, US revive trade talks as AGOA’s future looms
Kenya and the United States have reopened negotiations on a reciprocal trade framework that previously collapsed under both the Trump and Biden administrations.
The first round of consultations, according to Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui, aims to develop a framework for a reciprocal trade agreement between the two countries.
Trade Principal Secretary Regina Ombam led Kenya’s delegation, while Osvaldo Gómez-Martinez, acting assistant US trade representative for Africa, headed the US team.
In a statement issued on February 26, Kinyanjui’s office welcomed the renewed engagement, noting that the United States was Kenya’s second-largest export destination globally in 2025, while Kenya ranked as Washington’s eighth trading partner in Africa.
“The parties reaffirmed their strong strategic political, diplomatic and economic partnership supported by steady growth in bilateral trade over the past five years and increasing flows of high-impact US investments into Kenya,” Kinyanjui said.
Yet despite multiple attempts to build a formal trade pact, the two countries have so far failed to reach a comprehensive agreement that would significantly ease trade with the world’s largest economy.
This raises a familiar question: what derailed earlier negotiations, and will the third attempt fare any better?
Origins of the talks
Formal negotiations first emerged in early 2020 following a meeting between then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and US President Donald Trump during his first term.
Soon after, the Trump administration notified Congress of its intention to pursue negotiations, positioning Kenya as a potential partner for what would have been Washington’s second free trade agreement with an African country.
The move quickly drew criticism across the continent. Officials within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the East African Community questioned Kenya’s decision to negotiate a bilateral deal outside regional frameworks.
A 2021 report by the American Chamber of Commerce noted that Kenya itself acknowledged significant hurdles during the negotiations.
These included economic disparities between the two countries and limited technical capacity within Kenya’s negotiating teams.
“The government of Kenya sought to address these challenges, including by engaging consultants with economic, trade, and legal expertise to provide technical assistance and capacity building to negotiators,” the report said.
Institutional differences also complicated the process. Unlike the United States, Kenya lacks a formalised legal framework for trade negotiations.
Washington, by contrast, negotiates trade agreements under the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), a legislative framework that allows the president to pursue trade deals under expedited procedures in Congress with limited debate and no amendments.
From FTA to STIP
When the Ruto administration took office in September 2022, the earlier FTA discussions were replaced by a different arrangement.
In July 2022, Nairobi and Washington launched the US–Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), an initiative backed by the Biden administration.
STIP sought to establish high-standard commitments on non-tariff trade issues, including agriculture, digital trade, anti-corruption measures, labour standards, environmental cooperation, and trade facilitation.
However, the framework stopped short of addressing tariff barriers, a core component of a traditional free trade agreement.
At the time, Washington viewed Kenya as one of Africa’s most dynamic economies and the second-largest beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by value of eligible US imports excluding crude oil.
The AGOA clock
The renewed push for a trade deal now comes as the future of AGOA grows uncertain.
More than 70 per cent of Kenya’s exports to the United States currently enter duty-free under the program, which is set to expire in 2027 after a recent one-year extension.
Securing longer-term access to the American market remains a key motivation for Nairobi.
Yet the approach carries diplomatic sensitivities. The African Union has previously discouraged member states from pursuing bilateral trade agreements with external partners, warning that such deals could undermine the AfCFTA framework.
Kenya has already stirred regional unease by signing an Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union, a move that unsettled several East African Community partners.
Earlier this year, Nairobi also delayed signing a trade agreement with China amid pressure from Washington. Diplomatic sources said the move prompted protests from Beijing, which questioned whether Kenya was being pushed to choose sides.
Geopolitics beneath the trade
For Washington, the negotiations carry clear strategic overtones. Countering China’s growing economic influence in Kenya and across East Africa has long been part of US policy.
When the Trump administration first pushed for an FTA with Kenya in 2020, the talks were quietly linked to a broader economic vision tied to the Indo-Abraham Accords framework. That architecture encouraged deeper economic cooperation with Israel through trade corridors, investment channels, and technology partnerships.
The arrangement introduced geopolitical expectations alongside commercial interests, including alignment with certain elements of US Middle East strategy.
Whether such considerations will appear formally in the current negotiations remains unclear.
An uneven trading relationship
Despite the political attention surrounding the talks, trade volumes between the two countries remain relatively modest.
Kenya ranks as the 98th largest trading partner for the United States. For Kenya, however, the US remains a significant export market.
Kenya’s exports to the United States are dominated by relatively low-value goods such as coffee, fruits, and nuts.
American exports to Kenya, by contrast, tend to be higher-value products, including aircraft, machinery, and advanced equipment.
This imbalance highlights the structural challenge facing any future agreement.
For Kenya, the negotiations represent both an economic opportunity and a geopolitical balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
